The Coach Locus is Offensive and Two-Tiered: A Multi-Resolution Event-Study Decomposition of NFL Coaching Effects with a Bounded Defensive Null
abstract
NFL coaching effects are asymmetric across roles, sides of the ball, and observational resolutions. We apply a four-layer decomposition (season-aggregate, within-season event-study, within-game schematic, within-game stress adaptation) to nflverse play-by-play 2002–2024 across 213 head coach, 159 OC, and 144 DC observations, and find a bounded defensive null against a structured offensive signal.
cite
APA
Humphrey, N. (2026). The Coach Locus is Offensive and Two-Tiered: A Multi-Resolution Event-Study Decomposition of NFL Coaching Effects with a Bounded Defensive Null. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20416332
BibTeX
@misc{humphrey-2026-coach-locus,
author = {Nathan Humphrey},
title = {The Coach Locus is Offensive and Two-Tiered: A Multi-Resolution Event-Study Decomposition of {NFL} Coaching Effects with a Bounded Defensive Null},
year = {2026},
month = {may},
publisher = {Zenodo},
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.20416332},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20416332}
}
in production
The decomposition framework here runs underneath the live Resolve NFL projections — per-game forecasts that route through the same coach-locus signal characterized in this paper. Also feeds the dynasty value layer in Resolve FFB.