how the calls have held up
Why those numbers hold
the model
A bracket of opinions
March Madness, but the entries are takes about the sport, like "the best defenses all have an elite shot blocker". Each is tested against previous seasons with the result hidden. The strongest signal wins and moves on, and the last theories standing are what the projections are built on.
the discipline
Same rules, every sport
- Pre-register the falsification target before anything ships
- Gate against data the model has never seen
- Ship only what carries. Methods differ by sport, discipline doesn't
2026-06-27
Release notes
- NBA · 2026-06-27 · v1.0: Methodology locked.
- WNBA · 2026-06-27 · v1.0: Methodology locked.
- NFL · 2026-06-27 · v1.0: Methodology locked.
methodology writeups
Written down
Bayes for NBA, Statcast layers for MLB, one-feature Elo for futbol. The methods differ, the discipline doesn't. Noise that looks irreducible usually isn't; it's structure we haven't found yet.
Three tiers: Knight · Rook · Queen
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