So South Beach is welcoming Giannis. On its face, it seems like two dominant players who can feed off each other.
Some of us are terrified of the spacing this team will have. Who shoots 3's?
My model also said originally that move made the Heat a 61 win team. But I dug into the advanced metrics.
Bam and Giannis will dominant rim D. But these guys are really paint-bound. Bam's number one assist target was Herro last year. So what does it come down to?
Norman Powell. He is what got the Heat their 61 wins. Him being on the team that Bam and Giannis are running is essential.
This model replicated the exact record of the Bucks last season out-of-sample btw. That's why I trust it.
Without pushing hard for Powell (or equivalent) — the heat are sitting middle of the pack in the East.
The poor Bucks are looking at about a 20 win season sitting where they are now. But they're not even the biggest loser.
My model says Detroit is eating the L here. Their likelihood of a finals spot dropped from 18.1% to 10.1% regardless of where Powell signs.
They just got yet another beast in the East (even if they're not a winning team; they aren't someone you want to face). And let's be real — a Giannis/Bam duo matches up well against the Pistons play-style.
I'll keep a running list of other big trades and the LaMelo thoughts are coming this weekend.
— Nate